Skeptical Science New Research for Week #49 2023

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Open access highlights

Fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under& climate change, Shaw & Miyawaki,& Nature& Climate Change:

Here we show that fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change using daily data from climate model projections across a hierarchy of physical complexity. Fast winds also increase ~2.5 times more than the average wind response. We show that the multiplicative increase underlying the fast-get-faster response follows from the nonlinear Clausius&-Clapeyron relation (moist-get-moister response). The signal is projected to emerge in both hemispheres by 2050 when considering scenario uncertainty. The results can be used to explain projected changes in commercial flight times, record-breaking winds, clear-air turbulence and a potential increase in severe weather occurrence under climate change.

Long-distance migration and venting of& methane& from the base of the hydrate stability zone, Davies et al.,& Nature Geoscience:

Increases in bottom-water temperature at the landward limit of marine hydrate around continental margins, where vulnerable hydrate exists at or below the seabed, cause methane to vent into the ocean. However, this setting represents only ~3.5% of the global hydrate reservoir. The potential for methane from hydrate in deeper water to reach the atmosphere was considered negligible. Here we use three-dimensional (3D) seismic imagery to show that, on the Mauritanian margin, methane migrated at least 40 km below the base of the hydrate stability zone and vented through 23 pockmarks at the shelf break, probably during warmer Quaternary interglacials. We demonstrate that, under suitable circumstances, some of the 96.5% of methane bound in deeper water distal hydrates can reach the seafloor and vent into the ocean beyond the landward limit of marine hydrate.

Anthropogenic& Aerosols& Offsetting Ocean Warming Less Efficiently Since the 1980s, Sohail et al.,& Geophysical Research Letters:

We explore the deceleration of aerosol-driven ocean cooling by quantifying a time- and spatially varying ocean heat uptake efficiency, defined as the change in the rate of global ocean heat storage per degree of cooling surface temperature. In aerosol-only simulations, ocean heat uptake efficiency has decreased by 43& ±& 14% since 1980. The tropics and sub-tropics have driven this decrease, while the coldest fraction of the ocean continues to sustain cooling and high ocean heat uptake efficiency. Our results identify a growing trend toward less efficient ocean cooling due to aerosols.

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing, Herrera et al.,& PLOS& Climate:

Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P&-E) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Defense Planning Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Central Command,& Sudkamp et al.,& Rand Corporation:

Over the coming decades, stressors from& climate change& will become more intense and more frequent in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). This development will likely contribute to CENTCOM's broader shift from a warfighting-focused command to a command that will have to reprioritize and balance how it responds to and conducts both traditional and nontraditional security missions. The authors address how CENTCOM planners can use operations, activities, and investments to prevent — or mitigate the intensity of —& climate-related conflict. The causal pathways from& climate& hazards to conflict revolve around political and economic concerns.

113 articles in 48 journals by 674 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Diversity of Lagged Relationships in Global Means of Surface Temperatures and Radiative Budgets for CMIP6 piControl Simulations, Tsuchida et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0045.1

Do abrupt cryosphere events in High Mountain Asia indicate earlier tipping point than expected?, Xiao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.006

Evidence lacking for a pending collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Chen & Tung , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01877-0

Fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change, Shaw & Miyawaki, Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01884-1

Glacial Meltwater in the Current System of Southern Greenland, Beaird et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc019658

Revisiting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to global warming, Li et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07019-8

State-Dependence of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in a Clear-Sky GCM, Henry et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104413

Observations of climate change, effects

Local cooling and drying induced by Himalayan glaciers under global warming, Salerno et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01331-y

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing, Herrera et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000303

Regional Characteristics of Attribution Risk on the Record-High-Temperature Event of 2022 Rainy Season in Japan, Ito et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0172.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

An improved estimate of daily precipitation from the ERA5 reanalysis, Lavers et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1200

Features of the New Climate Normal 1991&-2020 and Possible Influences on Climate Monitoring and Prediction in China, Xiao-Juan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.007

Preface to Monitoring the Earth Radiation Budget and Its Implication to Climate Simulations: Recent Advances and Discussions, Montillet et al.,& Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres& Open Access& pdf& 10.1029/2023jd040075

Multi-decadal trends and variability in burned area from the 5th version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED5), Chen et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-182

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

CHESS-SCAPE: high-resolution future projections of multiple climate scenarios for the United Kingdom derived from downscaled United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 regional climate model output, Robinson et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-5371-2023

Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly, Suarez-Gutierrez et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01075-y

Land Surface Temperature Sensitivity to Changes in Vegetation Phenology Over Northern Deciduous Forests, Park & Jeong, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007498

Two Competing Drivers of the Recent Walker Circulation Trend, Watanabe et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105332

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Differences Between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration Budgets, Nie et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105265

Examining current bias and future projection consistency of globally downscaled climate projections commonly used in climate impact studies, Berio Fortini et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03623-z

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in the Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation, Chylek et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039269

Improving climate model skill over High Mountain Asia by adapting snow cover parameterization to complex-topography areas, Lalande et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023

Model uncertainty in synoptic circulation patterns and precipitation changes in Southern South America using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, Olmo et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2975535/v1

Surface Temperature Pattern Scenarios Suggest Higher Warming Rates Than Current Projections, Alessi & Rugenstein, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105795

The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics, Ahsan et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023

Weighting climate models for hydrological projections: effects on contrasting hydroclimatic regions, Castaneda-Gonzalez et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03643-9

Cryosphere & climate change

Committed Ice Loss in the European Alps Until 2050 Using a Deep-Learning-Aided 3D Ice-Flow Model With Data Assimilation, Cook et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105029

Cool ice with hot properties, Fan & Prior, Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01330-z

Committed Ice Loss in the European Alps Until 2050 Using a Deep-Learning-Aided 3D Ice-Flow Model With Data Assimilation, Cook et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105029

Cool ice with hot properties, Fan & Prior, Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01330-z

Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution, Noël et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43584-6

Passive microwave Arctic sea ice melt onset dates from the advanced horizontal range algorithm 1979&-2022, Bliss, Scientific Data Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-023-02760-5

Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier, Reed et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Acute heat priming promotes short-term climate resilience of early life stages in a model sea anemone, Glass et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.16574

Climate change alters global invasion vulnerability among ecoregions, Hubbard et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13778

Climate change strongly affects future fire weather danger in Indian forests, Barik & Baidya Roy, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01112-w

Climate change threatens the future viability of translocated populations, Bellis et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13795

Climate warming increases insect-driven seed removal of two elaiosome-bearing invasive thistle species, Drees & Shea, Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4223

Diversity of endemic cold-water amphipods threatened by climate warming in northwestern China, Huang et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13798

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes, Brodie et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43188-0

Explaining and predicting animal migration under global change, Howard et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13797

Genomic evidence for climatic adaptation in Fejervarya multistriata, Lei et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13796

Habitat-specific impacts of climate change on the trophic demand of a marine predator, Luongo et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4222

Shifting hotspots: Climate change projected to drive contractions and expansions of invasive plant abundance habitats, Evans et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13787

The soil microbiome governs the response of microbial respiration to warming across the globe, Sáez-Sandino et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01868-1

Warming-induced vapor pressure deficit suppression of vegetation growth diminished in northern peatlands, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-42932-w

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A functional perspective on the factors underpinning biomass-bound carbon stocks in coastal macrophyte communities, Lammerant et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106289

Biological carbon pump estimate based on multidecadal hydrographic data, Wang et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-023-06772-4

Climate Change Will Increase Biomass Proportion of Global Forest Carbon Stocks Under an SSP5&-8.5 Climate Trajectory, Mekonnen & Riley, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104612

Divergent data-driven estimates of global soil respiration, Hashimoto et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01136-2

Evaluating metrics for quantifying the climate-change effects of land-based carbon fluxes, Brandão et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02251-0

Global Nitrous Oxide Budget 1980&-2020, Tian et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-401

High methane concentrations in tidal salt marsh soils: Where does the methane go?, Capooci et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17050

Hypoxia-tolerant zooplankton may reduce biological carbon pump efficiency in the Humboldt current system off Peru, Engel et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-01140-6

Long-distance migration and venting of methane from the base of the hydrate stability zone, Davies et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-023-01333-w

Methane Gas Ebullition Dynamics From Different Subtropical Wetland Vegetation Communities in Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida Are Revealed Using a Multi-Method, Multi-Scale Approach, Sirianni et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007795

Response of erosion-induced carbon loss to rainfall characteristics is forest type dependent, Su et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109835

Satellite observed aboveground carbon dynamics in Africa during 2003&-2021, Wang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113927

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Comment on ‘US power sector carbon capture and storage under the Inflation Reduction Act could be costly with limited or negative abatement potential’, Smith, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0fee

Experimental study on the flow characteristics of supercritical CO2 in reservoir sandstones from the Ordos Basin, China, Zhu et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2246

How much organic carbon could the soil store? The carbon sequestration potential of Australian soil, Viscarra& Rossel et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17053

Reply to ‘A commentary on “US power sector carbon capture and storage under the Inflation Reduction Act could be costly with limited or negative abatement potential”’, Grubert & Sawyer Sawyer Sawyer Yadav, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0ff1

Two-phase flow behavior in CO2 geological storage considering spatial parameter heterogeneity, Zhong et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2248

Decarbonization

(Path)ways to sustainable living: The impact of the SLIM scenarios on long-term emissions, van den Berg et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102774

Inverted perovskite solar cells with over 2,000 h operational stability at 85 °C using fixed charge passivation, Yang et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01377-7

Net zero emission buildings: a review of academic literature and national roadmaps, Þórólfsdóttir et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0e80

Aerosols

Anthropogenic Aerosols Offsetting Ocean Warming Less Efficiently Since the 1980s, Sohail et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105374

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Integrating family farmers’ perceptions with meteorological records and national climate change projections to enhance site-specific adaptation knowledge, Enriquez et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-023-10093-2

Less negative impacts of climate change on crop yields in West Africa in the new CMIP6 climate simulations ensemble, Sultan et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000263

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climate change strongly affects future fire weather danger in Indian forests, Barik & Baidya Roy, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01112-w

Drylands becoming drier: evidence from North Patagonia, Argentina, Hurtado et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02160-w

Global high-resolution drought indices for 1981&-2022, Gebrechorkos et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-5449-2023

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5-Land Data in 1980&-2014, Fang & Leung, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039308

Revealing the Key Drivers Conducive to the “Once-In-A-Century” 2021 Peninsular Malaysia Flood, Dong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106112

Why was Pakistan extreme precipitation stronger in 2022 than in 2010?, Yuan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.016

Climate change economics

Climate change, environmental sustainability, and financial risks: are we close to an understanding?, Migliorelli, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101388

Climate-related financial risks: exploring the known and charting the future, Carè, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101385

Fiscal sustainability in times of climate challenges: a multidimensional approach of the interlinkages between climate change and sovereign debt, Boitan, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101387

Inequality repercussions of financing negative emissions, Andreoni et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01870-7

The decoupling effect between net agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth based on LCA, Wu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04236-3

The regional employment implications of a net-zero economy in Costa Rica under uncertainty, Sauma Chacón et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.017

Climate change and the circular economy

Unlocking the potential of the bioeconomy for climate change reduction: The optimal use of lignocellulosic biomass in Germany, Lubjuhn & Venghaus, Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13455

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A coordination failure between EU climate policies exemplified by the North Sea energy island, Kruse-Andersen & Jacobsen Jacobsen, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2287074

Comparative analysis of legal mechanisms to net-zero: lessons from Germany, the United States, Brazil, and China, Merner et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2288592

Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand, Watari et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43684-3

Impact of carbon emissions and GDP on air quality: forecast from 20 regions of China, Li & Wu, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04180-2

Important distinctiveness of SSP3&-7.0 for use in impact assessments, Shiogama et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01883-2

Local energy transitions as process: How contract management problems stymie a city's sustainable transition to renewable energy, Yang & Dodge, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113893

Misalignment between national resource inventories and policy actions drives unevenness in the energy transition, Owen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01134-4

Referendum as a policy instrument to enhance energy democracy in formulating energy transition path, agenda, and policies: A case study of Taiwan's referendums in 2018 and 2021, Shyu, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113914

Reply to: Evidence lacking for a pending collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Boers, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01878-z

The developmental state's legacy and corporate carbon emission performance: evidence from Taiwanese firms between 2014 and 2018, Pien et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2287743

The interplay between agriculture, greenhouse gases, and climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa, Omotoso & Omotayo, Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02159-3

The mid-transition in the electricity sector: impacts of growing wind and solar electricity on generation costs and natural gas generation in Alberta, Pearson & Hastings-Simon, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0c3f

Turkey's national renewable energy certificate system: a comparative assessment, Senturk & Ozcan, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04229-2

Which sectors should be covered by the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism? A network analysis, Lin & Zhao, Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.012

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Accessibility in key areas of the Arctic in the 21st mid-century, Chen et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.011

Climate adaptation and resilience indices for the Caribbean region: an assessment of four leading indices, Grant et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2282482

Comparative livelihood vulnerability assessment of villages to climate change in high-altitude cold desert, Ladakh, India, Namgyal & Sarkar, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04232-7

Demographics and risk of isolation due to sea level rise in the United States, Best et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43835-6

Ensuring/insuring resilient energy system infrastructure, Lonergan et al., Environment Systems and Decisions Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-023-09928-9

Harnessing indigenous knowledge and practices for effective adaptation in the Sahel, Zougmoré et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101389

Impact of climate change on carbon emissions in future road design: frost protection of roads in temperate climates, Hannasvik et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0dad

Use of subsidized insurance policy in climate adaptation strategies: the case of pastoral regions in China, Zeren et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2290030

Climate change impacts on human health

Advancing early warning and surveillance for zoonotic diseases under climate change: Interdisciplinary systematic perspectives, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.014

Behavioural (mal)adaptation to extreme heat in Australia: Implications for health and wellbeing, Zander et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101772

Climate change impacts on human culture

Inland shipping response to discharge extremes - a 10 years case study of the Rhine, Vinke et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100578

Other

Unit indicators of the greenhouse effect for CO2 and steam from H2O and anthropogenic impact on the climate, Zhmakin, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-023-04738-0

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Climate policy in an era of polycrisis and opportunities in systems transformations, Winkler & Jotzo, Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2287284

Critical climate education is crucial for fast and just transformations, Svarstad et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01875-2

Diversifying knowledge for climate change mitigation: Illuminating the common good and desirable futures, Hirt & De Pryck, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000321

Financing negative emissions leads to windfall profits and inequality at net zero, Andreoni et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01871-6

Identifying ecological and evolutionary research targets and risks in climate change studies to break barriers to broad inference, Love et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000320

Net-zero approaches must consider Earth system impacts to achieve climate goals, Zickfeld et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01862-7

Surface Temperature Pattern Scenarios Suggest Higher Warming Rates Than Current Projections, Alessi & Rugenstein, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105795

Terrestrial carbon dynamics in an era of increasing wildfire, Hudiburg et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01881-4


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Planning for an Uncertain Future. What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command, Sudkamp et al., Rand Corporation

Nearly the entire U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) faces the compounding effects of accelerating high temperatures, drought, and long-term dryness. Causal pathways from climate events to armed conflict are multistep processes in which climate hazards compound governance and socioeconomic grievances. According to modeling by RAND Corporation researchers, the CENTCOM AOR will experience substantial conflict in the coming half-century. However, that modeling might be underestimating the impact of climate variables on conflict. China and Russia have climate-related tools to leverage in relationships with regional countries. Because the causal pathways from climate hazards to conflict revolve around political and economic concerns, CENTCOM will likely play a supporting role to interagency partners. Supporting partner resilience to climate hazards will strengthen partnerships within the CENTCOM coalition and mitigate conflict risk.

Building Standards. Investigating the ability of 12 building standards to deliver resilient, healthy, and efficient buildings, Emu Passive

The authors show how current building codes fail to deliver resilient and healthy buildings. They also address how Passive building standards today provide a verified alternative path to delivering dependable and efficient shelters.

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iversen et al., Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is faced with a confluence of climate change, environmental degradation, resource exploitation, and conflict dynamics that is exacerbating insecurity in the country. The dual impact of climate change and the global green energy transition risks deepening divisions over resource management and fostering intercommunal conflict over resources such as land and water. Climate-related security risks threaten to undermine human security through increased livelihood and food insecurity and changing patterns of transhumance. For example, the impacts of climate change on agriculture, including temperature rises and precipitation variability, are eroding productivity and leading to heightened food insecurity and vulnerability in the DRC. Armed and inter-communal conflict in the east of the DRC is a key driver of displacement, causing mass population movement and rendering local communities, refugees, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The last five years have also seen a dramatic increase in the number of registered displacements caused by storms and floods. Climate change mitigation efforts and the sustainable management of forest resources are being impeded by ongoing conflict, corruption, and instability in the country. Illegal activities by armed groups, such as illicit mining, logging, and wildlife trading, are contributing to environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. The green energy transition is creating immense global demand for access to minerals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese, rare earth elements, and zinc. The operation of state and non-state armed groups in illegal mining and resource extraction is undermining natural resource governance, causing environmental damage and exacerbating communal tensions.

A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead. An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command, Miro et al., Rand Corporation

The authors examine climate change and its impacts on the physical environment to inform operational and longer-term decision-making by the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), with an emphasis on impacts that are relevant to food and water security in 2035, 2050, and 2070. The authors highlight locations that are projected to experience the biggest changes, as well as those that are most exposed to climate hazards. For example, nearly all countries in the CENTCOM AOR (area of responsibility) face the compounding effects of high temperatures, drought, and long-term dryness. These effects are accelerating across the CENTCOM AOR, which spans from Egypt through the Levant and the Arabian Peninsula and from Iran to Central Asia and Pakistan. As the AOR becomes hotter and drier, existing water resources will become scarcer. This could be particularly acute across the region compared with other parts of the world, given existing water scarcity issues and the high degree of tension that already exists around shared water resources.

Pathways from Climate Change to Conflict in U.S. Central Command, Chandler et al., Rand Corporation

The authors present an

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