Story of the Week
What the tiny remaining 1.5C carbon budget means for climate policy&
The& latest estimates& from the& Global Carbon Project& (GCP) show that total worldwide CO2 emissions in 2022 have reached near-record levels.&
The GCP’s estimates put the& remaining carbon budget& for 1.5C &- specifically, the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5C of warming &- at 380bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2). At the current rate of emissions, this budget would be blown in just nine years.
While that is a disconcertingly short amount of time, the budget for 1.5C may actually be even tighter.
Combining the latest insights from the& Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change& (IPCC) with the GCP’s data, we estimate that the remaining 1.5C carbon budget could be just 260GtCO2 &- around 120GtCO2 smaller. If emissions continued at current levels, this budget would run out in around six and half years.
However, reducing the remaining carbon budget to a single number means that many of the factors and uncertainties involved in calculating it &- and their implications for decision-making &- are missed.& &
With the& immense efforts of the GCP, we know that there is still no sign of the sustained fall in global CO2 emissions needed to meet the& Paris Agreement& warming limits.&
Cutting global CO2 emissions to zero by 2050, in line with limiting warming to 1.5C, would require them to fall by about 1.4GtCO2 every year,& comparable to the drop in 2020& as a result of Covid-19 lockdowns around the world, but this time driven by a long-term, structural change of the economy.
This highlights that the scale of the challenge is immense, no matter the precise figure of the rapidly shrinking carbon budget.
Click here& to access the entire article as originally posted on Carbon Brief.
What the tiny remaining 1.5C carbon budget means for climate policy, Guest Post by Piers Forster, Debbie Rosen, Robin Lamboll & Joeri Rogelj, Carbon Brief, Nov 11, 2022
Links posted on Facebook
Sun, Nov 6, 2022
- The best climate news you may not have heard about& by Bob Henson, Policy & Politics, Yale Climate Connections, Nov 3, 2022
- As countries convene at climate summit in Egypt, reports show the world is wildly off track. Here’s what to watch at COP27& by Ella Nilsen, CNN, Nov 6, 2022
Mon, Nov 7, 2022
- Explainer: What the latest IPCC science says about climate change& by Gloria Dickie, Reuters, Nov 6, 2022
- COP27: Climate anxiety is rising - it might be a good thing& by Georgina Rannard, Science, BBC News, Nov 5, 2022
- World faces ‘terminal’ loss of Arctic sea ice during summers, report warns& by Oliver Milman, Environment, The Guardian, Nov 7, 2022
- Loss and damage: Fight over human harm, huge climate costs& by Seth Borenstein, AP News, Nov 7, 2022
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- Huge glacier melt and fast rising seas amid hottest eight years on record &- WMO& by Emily Beament, PA/Belfast Telegraph, Nov 7, 2022
- We’re on a ‘highway to climate hell,’ UN chief Guterres says, calling for a global phase-out of coal& by Anmar Frangoul, CNBC, Nov 7, 2022
- Developing countries ‘will need $2tn a year in climate funding by 2030’& by Fiona Harvey, Environment, The Guardian, Nov 7, 2022
- ‘Toxic cover-up’: UN blasts oil majors’ fake net zero pledges& by Joe Lo, Climate Home News, Nov 8, 2022
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- Climate finance and human rights fears: what happened on day two of Cop27?& by Staff, Environment, The Guardian, Nov 8, 2022
- A climate change report card for the world, Analysis by& Sarah Kaplan, Climate & Environment, Washington Post, Nov 7, 2022
- SkS Analogy 9 - The greenhouse effect is a stack of blankets& by Evan & jg, Skeptical Science, Nov 8, 2022
- The Paris Agreement Is Working … for Now& by Robinson Meyer, Science, The Atlantic Magazine, Nov 9, 2022
Thu, Nov 10, 2022
- Oil and gas greenhouse emissions ‘three times higher’ than producers claim& by Fiona Harvey, Environment, The Guardian, Nov 9, 2022
- ‘Significant’ moves on climate disaster funds lift Cop27 hopes& by Damian Carrington, Environment, The Guardian, Nov 9, 2022
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week#45 2022& by Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Skeptical Science, Nov 10, 2022
- There’s one big subject our leaders at Cop27 won’t touch: livestock farming, Opinion by George Monbiot, Comment is Free, The Guardian, Nov 9, 2022
Fri, Nov 11, 2022
- With Lula Back, Can Brazil Turn the Tide on Amazon Destruction?, Analysis by Jonathan Watts, Yale Environment 360, Nov 9, 2022
- These Election Results Offer Clues about What’s Next for Climate Politics& by Adam Aton & Scott Waldman, E&E News/Scientific American, Nov 9, 2022
- Biden Tells Skeptical UN Summit US Is ‘Unwavering’ on Climate Aid& by Jennifer A Dlouhy & Justin Sink, Bloomberg Green, Nov 11, 2022
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Sat, Nov 12, 2022
- Analysis: Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels hit record high in 2022& by Dr Zeke Hausfather & Prof Pierre Friedlingstein, Carbon Brief, Nov 11, 2022
- Frustration Simmers Around the Edges of COP27, and May Boil Over Far From the Summit& by Bob Berwyn, Politics & Policy, Inside Climate News, Nov 11, 2022
- What the tiny remaining 1.5C carbon budget means for climate policy, Guest Post by Piers Forster, Debbie Rosen, Robin Lamboll & Joeri Rogelj, Carbon Brief, Nov 11, 2022
- Climate Change and Human Activity Erode Egypt’s Treasured Antiquities& by Vivian Yee, World, New York Times, Nov 12, 2022
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